A Race To The Line Leaves Policies In Its Wake
The Age
Tuesday August 7, 2007
Federal Parliament resumes today against a backdrop of a Reserve Bank decision on interest rates.
THERE is an unseemly haste to federal politics at present. It has all the appearance of a frenetic race to the winning line; not so much a dash for cash, but a dash with cash in hand.The House of Representatives begins a fortnight of sittings today in a pattern of scheduled two-week sittings every month until Christmas. However, the calling of the election will put an end to that and the Government will go into caretaker mode. The business of government will be subsumed by the business of being elected. The Prime Minister, John Howard, and the Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd, have been on the road for months; the former to secure a fifth term, the latter to break 11 years of Coalition rule. To paraphrase Dr Johnson, the prospect of electoral death concentrates the mind wonderfully. Both leaders may, in fact, find it hard to sit still in one place for a fortnight.Yet there is much to debate. Upcoming legislation includes the Federal Government's response to the "national emergency" of indigenous children in the Northern Territory, the takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin, the introduction of new penalties for the breaking of United Nations sanctions following the Australian Wheat Board scandal, new measures in relation to terrorism and surveillance, and the establishment of the Higher Education Endowment Fund.Both sides of the house will take their seats, however, with one other issue looming over their shoulders: interest rates. The Reserve Bank board will decide today whether to lift rates and will announce its decision tomorrow. An increase will send shudders through those already suffering from "mortgage stress". The Prime Minister already has made the pre-emptive strike by blaming the Labor state governments for creating the conditions that can raise pressure for a rate rise. It is the latest in a number of attempts by Mr Howard to target the premiers (he recently called them "agents" of Mr Rudd). In doing so, he has been playing one of his ace cards from previous campaigns, that is fear of the entire country being held by Labor, and the fear that under Labor interest rates will rise, even though there have been four rate rises since the last federal election.It is high-risk politics by the Prime Minister. It can give the appearance that he is continually armed with a carrot, a stick and a policy that is the servant to expedience. His dangling of cash in a marginal electorate for a hospital in Devonport, Tasmania, smacked of pure opportunism and had his Health Minister, Tony Abbott, backpedalling. Now come revelations from his party's own internal polling that confirms what other opinion polls have been saying. The Prime Minister is on the nose with voters. The report was compiled by Liberal Party adviser Mark Textor late last month. It adds little new or of substance from outside polls, such as questions over Mr Howard's age (he is 68), and that Mr Rudd (49) is seen as a generational change for the better. The report also reiterates a strategy with which Mr Howard has had success, that is criticising Labor's economic management. It is an issue where he, and his Treasurer, Peter Costello, can justifiably claim credit in the fight against inflation and unemployment. However, in a state-by-state breakdown, there are pressing issues: industrial relations, education and leadership.It is to the latter that Mr Howard faces the greatest challenge, and is a reason that his fire is now drawn towards the premiers. He cannot get a clear focus on his opponent. This is in part due to Mr Rudd actually showing little real difference in some of Mr Howard's strategies. An example is Tasmania, where a few days after the Prime Minister was reassuring timber workers of the security of their jobs, Mr Rudd was there doing the same thing.Perhaps the greatest danger Mr Howard faces is that by his rushing to be seen as the leader in command of all things, he may create the impression that he is running to stand still.
© 2007 The Age
